The future of Television
So you've got a TiVo and you like it. You can watch what you want, when you want. Sometimes you forget that other people can only watch whatever's on at the moment. You encourage your friends to get a TiVo. You can't live without yours, how can anyone else?
Those of us who are "ahead of the curve" can enjoy the benefits for now, but what would happen if everyone had a TiVo? Things would be mighty different!
Looking into my crystal ball, here's what I see: PVRs will become ubiquitous. TiVos will have an option to stream a show directly from the network's web site. Maybe even similar to BitTorrent to help reduce the load on centralized servers. The biggest problem for the networks is that they need to make money off of it. To combat the current P2P model of trading commercial-free shows, ads as we know them will disappear. They'll become inline ads (or maybe even plot topics), a la The Truman Show.
The public will love it, being the ultimate PVR. PPV channels won't convert right away, they'll be rather stubborn about their content, but eventually we'll reach the saturation point and everyone will get their TV over the Internet. When that happens, cable companies will be more focused on Internet service than cable TV (they're already heavily invested so they won't mind the change).
Trouble will arise when the networks want to add DRM keys that require the player to contact their server every time you watch a show. Hackers, of course, will have a way to bypass this system. The public will remain ignorant because their store-bought PVR "just works" and they don't know it's reporting all that for them (ignorant bliss). Initially, it won't be bad, they'll settle for the stats they get by counting downloads from their web site, but when they try to pass a law that either limits the number of playbacks or requires all playback hardware/software to report usage statistics, the public will start to pay attention.
With HDTV trying to become the new standard and the Broadcast Flag killing fair use, it's going to be a rough battle. We've got the potential for a really cool system where everyone can get what they want. The challenge will be big media's greed vs the desires and rights of the public.
I don't think that's all too far off... probably less than 10 years.
Those of us who are "ahead of the curve" can enjoy the benefits for now, but what would happen if everyone had a TiVo? Things would be mighty different!
Looking into my crystal ball, here's what I see: PVRs will become ubiquitous. TiVos will have an option to stream a show directly from the network's web site. Maybe even similar to BitTorrent to help reduce the load on centralized servers. The biggest problem for the networks is that they need to make money off of it. To combat the current P2P model of trading commercial-free shows, ads as we know them will disappear. They'll become inline ads (or maybe even plot topics), a la The Truman Show.
The public will love it, being the ultimate PVR. PPV channels won't convert right away, they'll be rather stubborn about their content, but eventually we'll reach the saturation point and everyone will get their TV over the Internet. When that happens, cable companies will be more focused on Internet service than cable TV (they're already heavily invested so they won't mind the change).
Trouble will arise when the networks want to add DRM keys that require the player to contact their server every time you watch a show. Hackers, of course, will have a way to bypass this system. The public will remain ignorant because their store-bought PVR "just works" and they don't know it's reporting all that for them (ignorant bliss). Initially, it won't be bad, they'll settle for the stats they get by counting downloads from their web site, but when they try to pass a law that either limits the number of playbacks or requires all playback hardware/software to report usage statistics, the public will start to pay attention.
With HDTV trying to become the new standard and the Broadcast Flag killing fair use, it's going to be a rough battle. We've got the potential for a really cool system where everyone can get what they want. The challenge will be big media's greed vs the desires and rights of the public.
I don't think that's all too far off... probably less than 10 years.
posted by The Amigo at 2:02 PM
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